Both the Labor government and the CLP opposition in the NT are set to launch their campaigns this weekend. With pre-polling for the August 24 election opening on Monday August 12, voters will be faced with significant choices. 

Matt Cunningham writing in our local paper today, has written as follows and I share his thoughts.

THE SEATS CLP NEED TO WIN TO CLAIM NT ELECTION

Matt Cunningham, NT News, 10 August 2024

The 2024 Territory election could be one of the closest in recent memory. The Country Liberal Party needs to gain six seats to win a majority. Here are seven electorates it will be targeting as early polling begins on Monday.

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PORT DARWIN

Labor’s incumbent Paul Kirby is retiring at the election after he was dumped from the cabinet late last year.

Labor was probably lucky to hold this seat in 2020.

The conservative vote was split between the CLP and Territory Alliance.

At the 11th hour TA candidate Gary Strachan (now running for the CLP in Johnston) reversed his preferences and put Labor ahead of the CLP after a dispute with CLP candidate Toby George.

The CLP’s candidate in 2024 is health professional Robyn Cahill.

Labor’s candidate is Brian Manning, an assistant school principal.

If the CLP can’t win this seat in 2024, they’re done.

FONG LIM

Like Port Darwin, this is an inner-city seat the CLP needs to win to have any hope of victory. The incumbent is Education Minister Mark Monaghan.

The CLP’s candidate Tanzil Ranman is an Oxford scholar and economic geographer from the Department of Chief Minister.

He was a member of the Labor Party until a few months ago but switched sides after missing out on ALP preselection.

GOYDER

This conservative seat in Darwin’s rural area is held by former CLP deputy leader Kezia Purick, who is retiring.

Purick defected and became an independent during the CLP’s last term in government and has comfortably held the seat since.

The CLP would be confident of winning the seat back but will face a stiff contest from Independent Belinda Kolstad, who is being backed by Purick.

Although even if Kolstad won, she would be almost certain to support a CLP minority government.

BLAIN

This seat is in Palmerston, where a swing to the CLP is likely to be most pronounced, given the law-and-order and cost-of-living issues that are being felt more acutely by voters here. Blain is the former seat of CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills.

Incumbent Mark Turner became the first Labor candidate to win the seat in 2020, when the conservative vote was split between Mills, standing for his new Territory Alliance Party, and the CLP.

Turner was kicked out of the Labor caucus in 2021 and later expelled from the party when he crossed the floor to support a CLP motion for an inquiry into police morale.

The former police officer has been an outspoken supporter of former constable Zachary Rolfe. Labor and CLP insiders believe Turner is a genuine chance to hold the seat as an independent. Labor’s candidate is Palmerston councillor Dani Eveleigh, while Matthew Kerle, who lost to Turner by just 13 votes in 2020 (2PP after Terry Mills was eliminated), is standing again for the CLP.

DRYSDALE

Also in Palmerston, Drysdale is held by Chief Minister Eva Lawler. While Lawler appears to have turned Labor’s electoral fortunes around there are some in the ALP who fear she could lose her own seat if there are strong swings in Palmerston.

It’s unlikely, but not beyond the realms of possibility that Labor could win enough seats to form a minority government but lose its leader along the way.

The CLP’s candidate is former soldier Clinton Howe who has been working hard on the doors.

WANGURI

Darwin’s northern suburbs – home to many of the almost 24,000 public servants in the NT – have been a Labor stronghold since Clare Martin’s historic election victory in 2001.

The CLP’s best chance of pegging back one of these seats (Labor holds them all) could be in Wanguri.

This might seem unlikely given Labor’s massive margin.

However, incumbent and former deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison is retiring and much of the vote in Wanguri would be her personal vote.

Wanguri includes many family-oriented, traditionally conservative voters who would have been attracted to Manison – the daughter of a police officer and perhaps the most centrist member of the Labor caucus – but might be reluctant to vote for a new Labor candidate, particularly given the crime issues the government has faced.

Labor’s candidate is former shoppies’ union organiser Shlok Sharma who is getting strong support from Manison.

The CLP’s candidate is Oly Carlson, a long-time Darwin resident who from all reports has been working hard on the doors ahead of election day.

Popular former lord mayor Graeme Sawyer’s entry as an independent adds an extra twist.

KARAMA

This is another northern suburbs seat that could fall to the CLP.

Residents in this seat have been impacted more than others by the dramatic rise in crime and anti-social behaviour.

Held by Minister for Territory Families Ngaree Ah Kit.

The CLP’s candidate is former Chamber of Commerce deputy chief executive Brian O’Gallagher.

These are the same two candidates who contested in 2020.