I am concerned that we in Australia are going to confront major COVID-19 outbreak the like of which we have not yet seen. The lack of ability on the part of people to take a long term attitude on control measures is leading me toward this thinking. There are a number of factors causing me to think in this unfortunate manner.

• Quarantine fatigue is breaking the resistance of people to countering C-19.
• More and more people are breaching physical distancing rules. It has been proven unequivocally that distancing (along with hand cleanliness) are the best deterents to contacting C-19.
• Return to the normal supply of alcohol and other relaxants will play out in a way that mitigates against physical distancing.
• Crowds flocking to pubs, clubs, beaches, rallies, parks cinemas and elsewhere will bring people into a closeness that will spread C-19 through social contract.
• The optionality of testing as a requirement for those in quarantine and lock down areas will mean cases occurring because of vtest avoidance.

*Foolish statements about safety of airline travel (compared to bus, train and ferry travel restrictions) guarantees spreading of the virus among airline travellers.

• A continuing return of overseas travellers into quarantine situations is bringing cases into Australia.
• The number of cases in schools, businesses and elsewhere will spike: Victoria’s revisitation to C-19 is only the start. Next may well be NSW and who knows where to from there.

*Thinking that C-19 is short term is unfortunate. This affliction is going to be with us into the foreseeable future.

• I’d prognosticate that the opening of travel around Australia will generate dollars and bequeath C-19 cases.
• It can be forecast that when C-19 gets into remote communities (and there is a 99% chance it will), C-19 will take off in a major way.

Am I worried? You bet I am.