With each passing day, I feel more and more that war in our region is just over the horizon. Your editorial today points toward a catastrophic situation happening within the next 18 months. I can sense that within a very short period of time after the conflict starts between China and Taiwan, America will cut in on the side of Taiwan. Maybe just with weapons support, but more probably with air and sea engagement on behalf of Taiwan. Australia will dutifully come in on the side of America, and could well attract retaliation. First it will be by economic embargo and then physical response in the form of missile, rocket and drone retaliation. For Darwin and Cairns, it could be a cause of revisitation to the second world war takeout of these cities of the north, during those months by Japan.
I may be accused of pessimistic imagination, but I think not. It is not hard to imagine our northern cities and towns, thousands of kilometres closer to China than our southern counterparts, being decimated as China pressures the Australian government to demur from even more drastic action by the land of the Panda.
Regardless of pros and cons, there is a certain irony about what is likely to transpire in nearing future: Taiwan, under the ‘One China Policy’ is not recognised by either America or Australia, nor for that matter by very many countries and governments. In the broadest sense, if China takes physical action against Taiwan, under the terms of the policy of recognition, the action would be tantamount to civil war.
Those close to the heart of action within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) refer to Taiwan as the “Treasure Island of our Motherland”. It will not be long before they CCP goes all out for what’s they define as reunification through a process which, more and more likely, will engulf Australia.
We have every reason to be concerned about the unfolding months ahead. As Australians, we will certainly be involved.